基于多超橢球模型的結(jié)構(gòu)非概率不確定性分析
打開文本圖片集
Structural Non-Probabilistic Uncertainty Analysis Based onMulti-super-ellipsoid Model
HUANG Ran LIU Xuekong* NI Wanjing （China Electronics Standardization Institute）
Abstract： Uncertainty problems of engineering caused byuncertain factors such as structures，materials，and loads are becoming more and more serious.How to quantify the various uncertainties and analyze the corresponding uncertainty propagation in complex computational models has atracteda lot of attention.Therefore，the paper is based on a nonprobabilisticuncertainty propagationmodel forthemulti-super-elipsoidal model.To address the problemofcognitive uncertainty caused byinsuficient structuralinformation，a multi-super-elipsoidal model isestablised toquantify the uncertainty.Furthermore，abidirectional BayesianoptimizationalgorithmbasedontheKriging modelisproposedtobalance thecomputationalefficiencyandaccuracyofuncertaintyanalysis.Thealgorithmcanactivelyselectthepointintheuncertain regionquantified bythe multi-super-ellpsoidal model toupdate the Kriging model，andsimultaneouslysolve the maximum and minimum bounds of uncertainty analysis.The analysis results of anumerical example and an enginering example validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.
Keywords：uncertaintyanalysis;uncertaintyquantification;multi-super-ellipsoidalmodel;Kriging;Bayesianoptimization
0 引言
現(xiàn)代工程對(duì)復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行詳細(xì)分析的需求日漸提升，同時(shí)裝備系統(tǒng)的性能預(yù)測越來越依賴于數(shù)值模型，因此在系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)時(shí)對(duì)其高性能、可靠性和功能健壯性的期望越來越高。（剩余8330字）