基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的河南省建筑業(yè)碳排放預(yù)測(cè)研究

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關(guān)鍵詞：建筑業(yè)；碳排放；系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)；碳排放預(yù)測(cè)

中圖分類號(hào)：TU241；X322 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A 文章編號(hào)：1003-5168（2025）11-0058-08

DOI：10.19968/j.cnki.hnkj.1003-5168.2025.11.013

Research on Carbon Emissions Prediction ofHenan Province's Construction Industry Based on System Dynamics

DONG Runrun FU Guodong （Henan University of Technology，Zhengzhou 45oooo， China）

Abstract： [Purposes] This paper aims to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the construction industry of Henan Province，predict future carbon emissions，provide a basis for formulating emission reduction measures，and help achievement of the carbon peak in the construction industry. [Methods] Based on the literature review and the development situation of Henan Province，21 indicators were selected from five aspects： energy consumption， construction development， social development， economic development，and science and technology to establish a system dynamics model with the carbon emissions of the construction industry.Combined with the relevant policies of Henan Province，three scenarios of low-energy development，medium-energy development，and high-energy development were designed to predict the future carbon emissions of the construction industry in Henan Province.[Findings] The results show that under the low-energy development scenario，the growth rate of carbon emissions in the construction industry of Henan Province is the slowest，and the emission reduction effect is the best. [Conclusions] In the future，the emission reduction measures of carbon emissions in the construction industry of Henan Province should focus more on optimizing the energy structure and promoting the use of green building materials，while strengthening policy guidance to ensure the best emisson reduction effect. Keywords： construction industry; carbon emissions; system dynamics; carbon emissions prediction

0 引言

隨著工業(yè)化和城市化進(jìn)程的加速，全球氣候變化成為不容忽視的重大環(huán)境問題。（剩余8394字）