滑坡穩(wěn)定性可靠度及巖土參數(shù)敏感性研究

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Study on Landslide Stability Reliability and Parameter Sensitivity胡文奎'，薛明華'，劉衛(wèi)衛(wèi)'，鹿傳磊2，3

（1．濟南市勘察測繪研究院，濟南250101；2．中國地質(zhì)調(diào)查局哈爾濱自然資源綜合調(diào)查中心，哈爾濱150081；3．自然資源部哈爾濱黑土地地球關(guān)鍵帶野外科學(xué)觀測研究站，哈爾濱150086）

中圖分類號：TU443 文獻標(biāo)志碼：A 文章編號：1005-8249（2025）01-0156-07

DOI：10.19860/j.cnki.issn1005-8249.2025.01.029

HU Wenkui'，XUE Minghua’，LIU Weiwei'，LU Chuanlei2，3

(1. Ji'nan Geotechnical Investigation and Surveying Institute， Ji’nan 25O1O1， China；

2.Harbin Natural Resources Comprehensive Survev Center， China Geological Suvey，Harbin 15OO8l，China；

.Station of Earth Critical Zone in Black Soil of Harbin，Ministry of Natural Resources，Harbin 15O086，China) Abstract：Toenhancetherationalityof landslidestabilityanalysisandremediationstrategies，this studytakestheFengqing landslidein Yunan Provinceastheengineeringcontext.Thestabilitycoeffcientof the landslidewascalculatedusing the strengthreduction method，andthefailure probabiltywasanalyzedbasedon MonteCarlosimulationandreliabilitytheoryThe sensitivityof geotechnical parameters tothe stabilitycoeffcientandslopedisplacementwasassessedusing the Spearman coeffcient.TheresultsindicatethatthestabilitycoefcientofthelandslideisO.863．Aftercomprehensiveremediation involving "slope reduction，grid anchors，and drainage interception，" the failure probability was reduced to 1，6% ，stabilizing thelandslide.Thefourparameterswiththehighestsensitivitytothestabilitycoeficientaretheinteralfrictionangleoffuly weatheredsandstone，cohesion，cohesionofsityclay，and internalfrictionangle，whilethenaturalunit weightofsiltyclay andfullyweatheredsandstoneshows negativesensitivitytothestabilitycoeficient.Thisstudyprovidesareferenceforeliability analysis of landslide stability under similar engineering contexts.

KeyWords：reliability theory；landslides；stability coefficients；Monte Carlo simulation；landslide management

0 引言

滑坡是主要自然災(zāi)害之一，在全球范圍內(nèi)產(chǎn)生廣泛的影響，并且對人類和社會造成了巨大的經(jīng)濟損失[1-3]。（剩余17239字）