基于kene的全球集裝箱航運網絡演化及魯棒性研究

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中圖分類號：F551 文獻標志碼：A

Abstract ： To identify the dynamic evolution processof the global container shipping network and measure the robustnessof the network，the kene theory is applied to establish link rules，simulating the port cooperation，withdrawal，and compensation mechanisms，and a shipping network evolution model based on port kene is constructed.By integrating port atribute with attack methods，the robustness of the network facing port withdrawal is simulated，and the evolution of relationships among ports and the robustness change of the shipping network are analyzed. The results indicate that port kene can affect the evolution of network. The model can accurately identify the links and withdrawal mechanisms among network entities to quantify the evolution of the network．In the emergence stage of evolution，ports tend to engage in conservative cooperation with other ports with similar economic levels.In the middle stage of the evolution，some ports withdraw due to the inability to maintain long-term cooperation with ports in the network.As the evolution deepens，cooperative relationships tend to be stable，and the kene gap between nodes（i. e.，ports）gradually becomes obvious. The robustness of the network fluctuates，and the fluctuation amplitude becomes more obvious with the deepening of evolution. Atacking high-kene nodes can reduce the robustness of the network，so the protection for these ports should be enhanced.

Key words： shipping network ； network evolution； robustness；port attribute

0 引言

海上運輸作為貿易全球化的支柱，其安全性與利益相關國之間的貿易穩(wěn)定有著直接的關聯。（剩余10884字）