承德縣國(guó)光蘋(píng)果始花期與氣象因子的相關(guān)分析及預(yù)報(bào)模型

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作者簡(jiǎn)介 劉紅霞（1979—），女，河北承德人，工程師，主要從事氣象服務(wù)、應(yīng)用氣象研究。

收稿日期 2023-08-02

Correlation Analysis and Prediction Model between Initial Flowering Period of Guoguang Apples and Meteorological Factors in Chengde County

Liu Hong-xia （Chengde Meteorological Bureau， Chengde， Hebei 067000）

Abstract In order to accurately predict the initial flowering period of Guoguang apples in Chengde County， issue flowering risk warnings， and minimize the adverse effects of flowering disasters on apple production， the relationship between the initial flowering period of Guoguang apples and various meteorological factors was statistically analyzed using observation data on the growth status of Guoguang apples in Chengde County from 2010 to 2023 and ground meteorological observation data during the same period. The results showed that the initial flowering period of Guoguang apples was related to the temperature in early January There is a significant correlation between the temperature in late March， the 0cm ground temperature in late March， the shallow ground temperature， and the ground temperature in early and mid April， as well as the initial and accumulated temperatures that pass steadily through ≥ 10 ℃. Selecting significant factors and applying stepwise regression method to establish a prediction model， the accuracy of the 0～2 day difference between the predicted and actual values of the initial flowering period in the backpropagation test reached 83%. The difference between the predicted and actual values of the initial flowering period from 2022 to 2023 was 3 days and 1 day， respectively. The established prediction model can be used for predicting the initial flowering period of Guoguang apples in Chengde County.

Key words Apple; Anthesis; Prediction; Meteorological factors

摘要 為準(zhǔn)確做好承德縣國(guó)光蘋(píng)果始花期預(yù)測(cè)、發(fā)布花期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警，盡可能減輕花期災(zāi)害對(duì)蘋(píng)果生產(chǎn)造成的不利影響，利用2010—2023年承德縣國(guó)光蘋(píng)果生育狀況觀測(cè)資料和同期地面氣象觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)，統(tǒng)計(jì)分析始花期與各氣象因子之間的關(guān)系，結(jié)果表明：國(guó)光蘋(píng)果始花期與1月上旬氣溫、3月下旬氣溫、3月下旬0 cm地溫、淺層地溫和4月上中旬地溫、穩(wěn)定通過(guò)≥

10 ℃的初日、積溫顯著相關(guān)。（剩余4829字）