三門(mén)峽紅富士蘋(píng)果始花期預(yù)測(cè)模型研究

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摘要：為了提高三門(mén)峽紅富士蘋(píng)果始花期預(yù)測(cè)水平和花期凍害防御能力，本研究分析了氣象因子與蘋(píng)果始花期之間的關(guān)系，依據(jù)不同數(shù)據(jù)組合，利用回歸法建立了4種始花期預(yù)測(cè)模型。結(jié)果表明：3月中旬平均氣溫、下旬平均氣溫、3月平均氣溫、≥0℃積溫、≥3℃活動(dòng)積溫和有效積溫、≥5℃活動(dòng)積溫和有效積溫與始花期呈明顯的負(fù)相關(guān)；

關(guān)鍵詞：三門(mén)峽市；紅富士蘋(píng)果；始花期；預(yù)測(cè)模型

中圖分類(lèi)號(hào)：S661.1文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A論文編號(hào)：cjas2021-0102

Sanmenxia Red Fuji Apple： Prediction Model of the First Flowering Date

JI Zhihong1，2， LIU Xiaoying1，3， ZHANG Yanyan2， CAO Suya2

（1Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Application Technology， Zhengzhou 450003， Henan， China； 2Sanmenxia Meteorological Bureau， Sanmenxia 472000， Henan， China； 3Henan Meteorological Service Center， Zhengzhou 450003， Henan， China）

Abstract： In order to improve the prediction level of the first flowering date of Red Fuji apple in Sanmenxia and enhance the variety’s tolerance to freezing injury during flowering period， the relationship between meteorological factors and the first flowering date was analyzed in this study. According to different data combinations， four prediction models of the first flowering date were established by regression method. The results showed that the average temperature in mid-March， the average temperature in late March， the average temperature in March， the≥0℃accumulated temperature， the≥3℃active accumulated temperature and the effective accumulated temperature， the≥5℃active accumulated temperature and the effective accumulated temperature were significantly and negatively correlated with the first flowering date. The

Keywords： Sanmenxia City； Red Fuji apple； first flowering date； prediction model

0引言

三門(mén)峽屬暖溫帶半干旱內(nèi)陸性氣候，年平均氣溫14.1℃，年降雨量568.3 mm，年日照時(shí)數(shù)2091.4 h，全年無(wú)霜期211天，平均相對(duì)濕度61%，最冷月（1月）平均氣溫-0.1℃，最熱月（7月）平均氣溫26.6℃。（剩余6616字）